Measuring the time-inconsistency of US monetary policy

JEL Classification: E52, E58monetary policy, time-inconsistency, US, US monetary policy

Inflation persistence and monetary policy design: an overview

How monetary policy should be set optimally when the structure of the economy exhibits inflation persistence is an important question for policy makers. This paper provides an overview of the implications of inflation persistence for the design of monetary policy. JEL Classification: E52, E58Inflation persistence, optimal monetary policy, uncertainty

Designing targeting rules for international monetary policy cooperation

JEL Classification: E52, F41, F42inflation target, Monetary policy cooperation, sticky prices, targeting rules, welfare analysis

The simple geometry of transmission and stabilization in closed and open economies

This paper provides an introduction to the recent literature on macroeconomic stabilization in closed and open economies. We present a stylized theoretical framework, and illustrate its main properties with the help of an intuitive graphical apparatus. Among the issues we discuss: optimal monetary policy and the welfare gains from macroeconomic stabilization; international transmission of real and monetary shocks and the role of exchange rate pass-through; the design of optimal exchange rate regimes and monetary coordination among interdependent economies.Classification-JEL: E31, E52, F42optimal monetary policy, nominal rigidities, exchange rate pass-through, international cooperation

Lessons for monetary policy: what should the consensus be?

This paper outlines important lessons for monetary policy. In particular, the role of inflation targeting, which was much acclaimed prior to the financial crisis and since then has not lost much of its endorsement, is critically reviewed. Ignoring the relation between monetary policy and asset prices, as is the case in this monetary policy approach, can lead to financial instability. In contrast, giving, inter alia, monetary factors a role in central banks’ policy decisions, as is done in the ECB’s encompassing approach, helps prevent these potentially harmful side effects and thus allows for fostering financial stability. Finally, this paper makes a case against increasing the central banks’ inflation target. JEL Classification: E44, E52, E58 Keywords: Inflation Targeting, Asset Prices, Financial Stability, EC

Investigating the monetary policy of central banks with assessment indicators : [Version December 2009]

This paper outlines a new method for using qualitative information to analyze the monetary policy strategy of central banks. Quantitative assessment indicators that are extracted from a central bank's public statements via the balance statistic approach are employed to estimate a Taylor-type rule. This procedure allows to directly capture a policymaker's assessments of macroeconomic variables that are relevant for its decision making process. As an application of the proposed method the monetary policy of the Bundesbank is re-investigated with a new dataset. One distinctive feature of the Bundesbank's strategy consisted of targeting growth in monetary aggregates. The analysis using the proposed method provides evidence that the Bundesbank indeed took into consideration monetary aggregates but also real economic activity and inflation developments in its monetary policy strategy since 1975. JEL Classification: E52, E58, N14 Keywords: Monetary Policy Rule, Statement Indicators, Bundesbank, Monetary Targetin

Optimal monetary policy with uncertainty about financial frictions

This paper studies optimal discretionary monetary policy in the presence of uncertainty about the degree of financial frictions. Changes in the degree of financial frictions are modelled as changes in parameters of a hybrid New-Keynesian model calibrated for the UK, following Bean, Larsen and Nikolov (2002). Uncertainty about the degree of financial frictions is modelled as Markov switching between regimes without and with strong financial frictions. Optimal monetary policy is determined for different scenarios of permanent and temporary regime shifts in financial frictions, as well as for variations in financial frictions over the business cycle. Optimal monetary policy is found to be state-dependent. In each state, optimal monetary policy depends on the transition probabilities between the different regimes. JEL Classification: E52, E58, E61, E44financial frictions, monetary policy, uncertainty

The Eurosystem, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan: similarities and differences

The paper provides a systematic comparison of the Eurosystem, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. These monetary authorities exhibit somewhat different status and tasks, which reflect different historical conditions and national characteristics. However, widespread changes in central banking practices in the direction of greater independence and increased transparency, as well as changes in the economic and financial environment over the past 15-20 years, have contributed to reduce the differences among these three world’s principal monetary authorities. A comparison based on simple “over-the-counter” policy reaction functions shows no striking differences in terms of monetary policy implementation. JEL Classification: E40, E52, E58central banks and their policies, monetary policy, monetary policy committees

Identifying the bank lending channel in Brazil through data frequency

Using the different response timings of credit demand and supply, we isolate supply shifts after monetary policy shocks. We show that the bank lending channel exists in Brazil: after an increase (decrease) in the basic interest rate (Selic), banks reduce (increase) the quantity of new loans and raise (lower) interest rates. However, contrary to the empirical literature for the US, we find evidence that large banks react more than smaller ones to monetary policy shocks. Results may have important implications for monetary policy transmission in light of the recent wave of concentration in the Brazilian banking industry.monetary policy transmission; credit markets; bank lending channel. JEL Code: E52; E58

Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a micro-founded model of a monetary union

So far, the 'new open economy macroeconomics' literature has primarly focused on monetary policy and monetary policy rules, rather than paying attention also to fiscal policy. This is an omission because, especially with the advent of EMU, the burden on fiscal policy as an instrument for macroeconomic stabilization has potentially increased. In this paper, we focus on the interactions between monetary and fiscal policy in a micro-founded model of a monetary union. By extending a two-country, New Keynesian model with public spending, we find that the forward-looking Phillips curves depend on consumption, terms-of-trade and public spending deviations from their respective stochastic natural settings. We study the optimal coordinated monetary and fiscal policy settings for variuos settings. We also consider simple monetary and fiscal policy rules and investigate to what extent these rules can approximate the optimal solution under commitment. JEL Classification: E52, E61, E62, E63, F33monetary policy rules, Policy mix